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Trends in global cocoa production |
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Trends in global cocoa consumption |
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Using the resulting supply/demand balances,
international cocoa prices |
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Global cocoa production is highly concentrated |
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Significant expansion limited to the three
largest producers |
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Continued concentration in production therefore
likely |
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Resulting in increased risk to global supply |
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The threat from cocoa pests and diseases is
increasing |
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Consumption grown rapidly - rising incomes and
populations |
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Growth mainly from the major markets of W.
Europe and N. America |
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Increased impetus for growth from emerging
markets |
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Economic crises slowed growth in these regions
but long term prospects bright |
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Chinese demand growth good potential, but only
180 million people have adequate income |
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Russia - large potential, although the
macroeconomic situation uncertain |
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Brazil is increasing consumption |
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3% growth: relatively balanced supply-demand
outlook after 1999/00. Prices reach $1,979/tonne by 2010. |
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4.5% growth: four years of deficit follow the
1999/00 crop. Prices reach $2,562/tonne by 2010. |
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1.5% growth: surplus continues into 2000/01
after which low prices curtail production leading to 3 years deficit.
Prices reach $1,466/ tonne by 2010. |
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Notes